Crimeea, doar un episod din confruntarea energetică

Crimeea, doar un episod din confruntarea energetică

Rușii par să fi ajuns la concluzia că după unda de șoc transmisă în lume cu ocuparea Crimeei, cea mai bună apărare este totuși atacul economic.

Gazpromul în civil, mai puternic decât armata rusă, urmărește obiectivul de a invada rapid Occidentul cu SouthStream, evitând Ucraina și România, peste Marea Neagră, direct în Bulgaria și de acolo în sistemul european de conducte.

Înainte de sancțiunile americane să atingă un nou nivel, Federația Rusă accelerează cu agresivitate proiectul South Stream, profitând de cronica indecizie europeană și de jocul dublu în materie de politică energetică.

Rusia știe că în vreme ce specialitatea casei e de secole defensiva militară, în plan economic, defensiva echivalează cu falimentul, dezastrul social și într-un final, destructurarea țării.

Kremlinul pare să meargă la sigur cu Bulgaria pro-rusă, o verigă slabă în Uniunea Europeană. Pentru că nu îți permiți să riști vreun pic atunci când construiești o conductă de 1000 de kilometri peste mare. Nimeni nu vrea să piardă 20-30 de miliarde de dolari, cât va costa conducta, ceea ce înseamnă că Rusia și-a asigurat foarte bine capul de pod. Asta înseamnă pratic decizie politică favorabilă intereselor energetice rusești pe termen nelimitat.

Și uite așa rușii sar și Ucraina și România și ies din cea mai periculoasă formă de izolare – cea energetică. În același sens, al cursei pentru piețe externe trebuie citit si acordul ruso-chinez, semnat la limită, după ce Putin a venit la Beijing să se umilească în fața chinezilor. Nevoia Rusiei de a nu rămâne izolată economic e mai mare ca niciodată.

Și în Europa, Rusia are prieteni buni. Bulgaria e de fapt un nume sub care se face politică rusească. Austria, profund legată prin multiple fire de politica energetică a Rusiei. Italia – alt partener, care de altfel, este un promotor puternic al Southstream. Serbia, încă ne-memebră a Uniunii Europene, rămâne, la fel de atașată pan-slavismului.

Statele Unite par și ele să fi realizat strategia rusească și au dat mesaje puternice în favoarea marilor proiecte energetice atât din surse convenționale cât și neconvenționale. Gazele lichefiate americane vor lua drumul Europei în următorii ani, dar rolul crucial în reducerea influenței rusești asupra deciziei politice și economice europene îl vor juca interconectarea și demararea proiectelor legate de gazele de șist și eventualele resurse din Marea Neagră din perimetrele explorate de diverse companii, între care cel mai important este cel explorat de gigantul american Exxon și austriecii de la OMV. România ar putea juca așadar, un rol cheie în strategia americană.

Faptul că în cadrul recentei vizite la București, vicepreședintele SUA Joseph Biden, a vorbit apăsat despre sprijnul pe care America îl va da consolidării independenței energetice, indică această zonă drept una în care confruntarea Vest-Est va fi mai aprigă ca niciodată. Aflată în zona de maximă confruntare, lângă zona din platoul continental ucrainian dobândită de ruși în urma ocupării Crimeei, România devine cea mai importantă piesă pro-occidentală în jocul e șah energetic dintre America și Rusia. Cum va evalua acest rol și dacă vor fi nete beneficii pentru țară și cetățenii ei, va depinde de modul cum clasa politică de la București își va înțelege menirea. Un lucru mai greu de deslușit având în vedere multele precedentele în care politicienii români au ratat cu poarta goală și au transformat mizele mari în mize mici de campanie electorală.

Etichete: BulgariaExxonExxonMobilJoe BidenOMVOMV PetromRomaniaRusiaSouth StreamUcraina


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